Weatherman prediction to bring smiles on the faces of farmers

Report by: 
Port Blair
16 Apr 2018

Crucial for millions of farmer across the country, the southwest monsoon is expected to be normal in 2018, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday. In its Long Range Forecast, the weatherman forecast that monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. IMD also forecast maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.
In its official website, IMD stated that the next update will be issued in early June 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued, IMD said.
The IMD forecast further said that the moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year started weakening in the early part of this year and currently have turned to weak La Nina conditions. The latest forecasts from MMCFS & other global models indicate conditions over the Pacific to turn to neutral ENSO conditions before the beginning of the monsoon season. Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season. As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans, added the agency.